Well, it sure took me a long time but here are my final Oscar predictions. It’s been a crazy few months, but I was able to watch all of the best picture nominees. I was only left with one question: what was the Academy smoking? To be sure, there are a lot of worthy nominees in the list (namely: “Inglourious Basterds,” “The Hurt Locker,” “A Serious Man,” “Precious,” “District 9″ and “Up”). But there were certainly better films out there than fare like “Up in the Air” and “The Blind Side.” The addition of the latter selections just goes to show how unnecessary and damaging the increase to ten nominees was. I can only shake my head at this point.
Before I reveal my choices, I want to share that Mr. Craig Kennedy will be hosting a lovely (virtual) gathering tonight during the ceremonies, so make sure you stop by Living in Cinema’s Live Stream of Oscar Consciousness, beginning at 5:00 p.m. (PST), better known around these parts as 8:00 p.m. (EST). I hope to see you there. Drinks will be served.
Without further ado, here are my predictions:
 Avatar |
B+ | A visual marvel that, unfortunately, lacked in depth. Expertly executed by James Cameron, it kept me at a distance throughout most of its duration. The financial success of the film should keep things interesting tonight and I expect it to sweep most of the technical effects categories. Alas, I think the Academy will bypass it for its most prestigious categories, and yes, that would include best picture. That’s my ballsy prediction of the night. |
 The Blind Side |
B | Another box office smash that manages to succeed in large part due to Sandra Bullock’s performance. The film pleased audiences nationwide, but it is simply not the type of “prestige” project Oscar goes for. The film will have to do with the likely victory of its protagonist. |
 District 9 |
A | The guilds, the Globes and the critics have gotten it all wrong this year and most assuredly will the Academy tonight. “District 9″ is quite simply the best science fiction film to come out of 2009. Too bad it will probably go home empty handed tonight. |
 An Education |
B | The powers that be surely saw something in the film that went way over my head. Harking back to the kitchen-sink dramas of the 50s and 60s, the film is populated by talented actors, but be it the story itself or the direction, the film feels terribly familiar and quickly overstays its welcome. The by-the-numbers resolution surely didn’t help. |
 The Hurt Locker |
A | One of the best films of the year. A “Locker” victory would be more than well deserved. Bigelow and company have crafted the type of film that grabs the viewer by the neck and never lets go. Packed with thrilling action/suspense sequences and armed with a message that is neither heavy-handed nor pandering, Bigelow walks a thin line and will hopefully be rewarded tonight for her remarkable achievements. |
 Inglourious Basterds |
A | Let’s face it: the Oscars are a game. They are, for the most part, a popularity game and you never know what will strike their fancy on a given year. So while I acknowledge and predict that “The Hurt Locker” will win best picture, the film that will be studied, dissected and revered in years to come is “Inglourious Basterds,” which, in a fair playing field, would be the rightful winner. In terms of story-telling, cinematography, and acting, it is eons ahead — way past Pandora. But let’s not lose sight of reality, there’s a story furiously fueling this year’s awards and that’s the Cameron/Bigelow “drama.” Bitter much, you ask? Perhaps in a different year or if the two frontrunners were, say, “Up in the Air” and “An Education,” but I can pretty much tolerate the “Avatar” hype and find “The Hurt Locker” a worthy contender. So no, not bitter, just realistic. |
 Precious |
A | What a refreshing surprise it would be to see “Precious” walk away the night’s big winner. But its best chances are in the Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay categories. There is some hope for lead Sidibe to sneak in and beat Bullock and Streep, but at this point, I’m keeping my predictions as conservative as possible. |
 A Serious Man |
A | Speaking of underappreciated gems, there’s the Coen Brothers’ latest outing, a terrifically entertaining and intelligent film that will most likely go home empty-handed. |
 Up |
A- | This film boasts the best opening of the year and is perhaps the year’s most moving story. It will probably win in the Animated category, but watch out for “Fantastic Mr. Fox,” a critical favorite. Only one thing is for sure: it will not walk away as the best film of the year. |
 Up in the Air |
B- | This is the “why” film of the year. Do I just have it out for Jason Reitman? Am I too cynical? Did I pop in the wrong Clooney masturbatory film in the DVD? I’ll think about that tonight and then quickly dispose of such thoughts for eternity. That’s, in fact, the highlight of tonight’s show for me: I will not have to hear about this film in terms of its award worthiness again . . . or until the MTV Movie Awards. |
Here are my predictions in their entirety:
| Category | Prediction |
|---|---|
| BEST PICTURE | The Hurt Locker |
| BEST DIRECTOR | Bigelow, The Hurt Locker |
| BEST ACTRESS | Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side |
| BEST ACTOR | Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart |
| BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS | Mo’Nique, Precious |
| BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR | Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds |
| BEST EDITING | The Hurt Locker |
| BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY | Avatar |
| BEST ANIMATED FILM | Up |
| BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM | The White Ribbon, Germany |
| BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM | Food, Inc. |
| BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT | China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province |
| BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | The Hurt Locker |
| BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | Up in the Air |
| BEST ORIGINAL SCORE | Up |
| BEST ORIGINAL SONG | The Weary Kind, Crazy Heart |
| BEST COSTUME DESIGN | The Young Victoria |
| BEST MAKE UP | Star Trek |
| BEST ART DIRECTION | Avatar |
| BEST SOUND EDITING | Avatar |
| BEST SOUND MIXING | The Hurt Locker |
| BEST VISUAL EFFECTS | Avatar |
| BEST ANIMATED SHORT | The Lady and the Reaper |
| BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT | The Door |
Lawyer by day, blogger by night.
Interesting observations, Goddess D.
I’m with you. When the smoke clears and this year has been hung up for posterity, INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS will be the film most associated with 2009 – and it will be the movie that is remembered, studied and adored endlessly.
The ACADEMY may not see it that way. Let’s just say that it will have to be their loss.
I watched IB again yesterday afternoon. It’s an audacious masterwork. End of story.
I really wish we were having the shindig at your place like we did last year. But we can all hang out at Craig’s. That’ll be a magnificent blast.
Good times…
lol…poor Up in the Air.
My relationship with that movie has been strange. I was actively disliking it through half of it, but then it rallied with the ending. Since then though, it’s been downhill all the way. I still like it better than a lot of people, but…eh.
Glad you agree about IB, Ms. M. Its power and superior craft is so obvious to me, I’m just shocked that it didn’t resonate as much as I wanted it to with the award entities. And I’m glad you’ll be dropping by Craig’s shindig. Should be lots of fun
Craig, I wish I could rationally explain my dislike of the film (other than to say that it was relentless boring, save the portions with Vera Farmiga, predictable and an unending parade of product placement). At this point I think I probably resemble the crazy lady yelling in the subway because so many people I respect like the film, but oh well, it’s one of those films and I’ve been there before (Benjamin Button, anyone?)